Nature, Published online: 27 February 2026; doi:10.1038/d41586-026-00505-z
Negative net migration hasn’t definitively happened in the U.S. for almost a century, not since the Great Depression. The U.S. native-born population is also in free fall, well below the replacement rate needed to maintain population numbers in the long run. With fewer immigrant arrivals already dealing a blow to the workforce, the shrinkage of the American taxpayer base is set to further widen the country’s deficit and hurt its prospects for economic growth.
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